Berlin just got hit by a political earthquake. The snap Bundestag elections weren’t just about a power shift—they were a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. And the big winner? As predicted, Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) coalition. With 28.6% of the vote, Merz has emerged as the frontrunner, but not with enough seats to govern solo.

Then there’s the bombshell of the night—the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) smashing records with 20.8%. That’s not just a good night for them—it’s a historic breakthrough. The party has now cemented itself as Germany’s second-largest political force, riding the wave of public frustration over immigration and economic downturns.

And then there’s the absolute train wreck for the Social Democrats (SPD). Olaf Scholz and his party got obliterated, scraping together a humiliating 16.4%—their worst result ever. The Greens didn’t fare much better, barely mustering 11.6%. Bottom line? Germany just took a hard right turn.

Merz Wins, But Now Comes the Real Fight

Celebrating in Berlin, Merz gave a victory speech that sounded confident but cautious:

"Tonight, we celebrate. Tomorrow, we get to work."

But let’s be real—he’s got a mountain to climb. His party may have won, but without an outright majority, he’s now stuck playing the coalition game.

AfD, now sitting on over 150 seats, could have been an obvious ally, but there’s just one problem—nobody wants to work with them. The political establishment still treats them like radioactive waste. Even their leader, Alice Weidel, knows the deal: “We’re ready to negotiate,” she said, “but we understand we remain in isolation.”

So what’s left for Merz? One option is a “grand coalition” with the SPD and the Greens—enough to form a government, but talk about an awkward political marriage. Scholz already called the election results “bitter” and hasn’t signaled whether his party would swallow its pride and work under a CDU-led government.

Why Did Germany Vote This Way?

This wasn’t just an election—it was a reckoning. The left got crushed because they failed on every front that mattered:

The economy is in shambles. Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, hasn’t seen real growth in two years. Manufacturing is bleeding out, the auto industry is losing its edge, and an energy crisis is hammering heavy industry. Business confidence? It’s in the gutter. Migration is a national crisis. Since May 2024, five deadly attacks have rocked Germany—three of them right before the election. Every single suspect? Migrant background. AfD ran on a hardline immigration stance, and voters didn’t see it as radical anymore—they saw it as common sense. Germany feels abandoned by the U.S. Washington has been pulling back, telling Europe to handle its own defense, while keeping Germany out of the loop on critical Russia negotiations. That leaves Berlin in a geopolitical no-man’s land—and voters are demanding a leader who can fix it.

Merz says he’ll cut taxes, rebuild the economy, crack down on immigration, and double down on supporting Ukraine. But before he can get to any of that, he’s got one job—find allies to actually form a government.

Germany’s political future is hanging in the balance, but one thing is clear—Scholz is done, and Germany is headed in a whole new direction.

Record-Breaking Turnout, New Rules of the Game

Germany just had an election like no other. A new voting law cut the Bundestag’s seats from 733 to 630, a move meant to streamline governance but, in reality, only intensified the battle for every single mandate. And Germans showed up in force—a staggering 84% voter turnout, the highest since 1990. That number alone tells you one thing: this wasn’t just another election—it was a statement.

Olaf Scholz’s era? Dead and buried. Now, Germany is bracing for what’s next.

The biggest question: who’s going to form the government?

Friedrich Merz wants to hammer out a coalition deal by Easter (April 20), but it’s looking like a brutal uphill battle. He’s promising to revive the economy, slash taxes, tighten immigration, and reinforce Germany’s support for Ukraine. Sounds great—except none of it happens without a stable coalition, and right now, there’s no clear path to one.

One thing is certain: this election changed Germany forever. The conservatives are back, and the country is gearing up for a whole new political playbook.

When Merz stormed back into politics in 2018, the first thing he did was school journalists on his name: "It’s Merz, not März." It was a flex—subtle, but intentional. He wasn’t just another run-of-the-mill conservative politician. He was a man on a mission to restore Germany’s lost direction.

Two decades ago, he was a rising star in the CDU, battling Angela Merkel for leadership. But Merkel—a political powerhouse with killer instincts—shut him out. By 2002, she had pushed him aside as the CDU’s parliamentary leader. By 2009, he was out of politics altogether.

But the political wilderness didn’t last. Fast forward to 2018—Merkel was on her way out, and Merz saw his opening. The party’s grassroots loved him, but the CDU establishment wasn’t ready. Twice, they shut him down—first in favor of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (Merkel’s pick), then in 2021 for Armin Laschet, a bland centrist who led the CDU into an election disaster.

By 2022, the party was in full-blown crisis mode—and this time, they turned to Merz. He won the leadership by a landslide, pulling in 62% of the vote. Six years after his political comeback, he’s now on the verge of becoming Germany’s next chancellor.

Merz’s Playbook: Tax Cuts, Border Control, and Hard Power

A right-wing economic liberal, Merz has always pushed for lower taxes, smaller welfare programs, and tighter immigration controls. But running a country is a whole different ball game, and a lot will depend on his coalition partners.

One thing’s for sure: opposition Merz and Chancellor Merz may not be the same guy. Governing means cutting deals, making compromises, and facing political realities. And Merz? He knows how to play the long game.

That was clear on the debate stage, where he avoided cheap populism and instead positioned himself as a rational, strategic leader. He’s not about pointless political fights—he’s about winning the war.

Merz has been one of the loudest voices in Germany pushing for stronger support for Ukraine. For two years, he slammed Olaf Scholz for dragging his feet on sending weapons—especially the Taurus missiles, which Berlin never delivered.

In October 2024, Merz made it clear: If he were in charge, Ukraine would already have those missiles—but not for free.

“I would say this: If Russia doesn’t stop its attacks, the first step is lifting range restrictions for strikes inside Russia. The second step? Sending Taurus missiles. And then it’s up to Putin—how far does he really want to escalate?”

Then, in December, just weeks before the election, Merz made his second wartime trip to Kyiv, where he met Zelensky and pitched a new European alliance to support Ukraine. His vision? A power bloc of Germany, France, Poland, and the UK, shaping Europe’s future approach to Russia and Ukraine.

He also sent a clear message: peace talks with Putin aren’t happening unless Ukraine is strong enough to fight back.

“This war needs to end as soon as possible. But Putin will only negotiate when Ukraine can actually defend itself.”

His economic agenda? Classic conservative doctrine:

– Tax cuts for businesses and the middle class
– More private sector investment
– Welfare reform to slash social spending
– Tougher immigration laws

It’s music to the ears of German business leaders, who felt crushed under Scholz’s government—higher taxes, overregulation, and a plummeting competitive edge.

And when it comes to energy policy, Merz is pushing back against Merkel’s legacy. He’s not sold on Germany’s full-throttle renewable energy push, arguing for a “rational energy mix” that includes a return to nuclear power.

That’s a controversial stance, but in a country facing skyrocketing energy costs, it might be exactly what voters want.

Merz may have won, but he’s still got one final boss battle: coalition talks. He wants a government locked in by Easter, but who’s going to team up with him?

Here are the three possible scenarios:

A grand coalition with the SPD and Greens – Unlikely, but not impossible if the SPD swallows its pride. A deal with the Free Democrats (FDP) – The ideal conservative option, but FDP might not even make it into parliament. A minority government – Risky as hell, but if coalition talks go south, it’s not off the table.

No matter what happens, Germany is at a turning point. After years of centrist, consensus-driven politics, the country is veering right.

The Merz era is about to begin. The only question now—how far will he take it?

Three Possible Scenarios: What’s Next for Germany?

Germany’s post-election landscape is a political minefield, and Friedrich Merz is now navigating the toughest challenge of his career—forming a government. With no absolute majority, his options are limited, each carrying serious risks.

A Grand Coalition with the SPD and Greens – Possible, but humiliating for the Social Democrats, who would have to swallow their worst election defeat ever and accept a secondary role in a conservative-led government. A Deal with the Free Democrats (FDP) – Merz’s dream coalition, but a big question mark—did the FDP even clear the 5% threshold? If they didn’t make it, this plan is dead in the water. A Minority Government – Risky, unstable, and not ideal, but not off the table if coalition talks break down.

One thing is crystal clear: these elections mark the end of the Scholz era. For years, Germany was locked into centrist politics, avoiding major ideological swings. That’s over.

Merz’s victory isn’t just a power shift—it’s a sign that German society is done with the chaos, the crises, and the uncertainty. Now, the country is putting its hopes on a leader who promises order, stability, and a return to conservative values. Whether he delivers? That’s the big question.

With his resounding election win, Friedrich Merz has officially stepped out of the shadows and into the spotlight. This isn’t just a new chancellor—it’s a political shift Germany hasn’t seen in decades. His agenda is clear: hardline national security, military expansion, and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Germany’s defense budget is now on track to hit a historic 3% of GDP—a staggering $134 billion. For comparison, Germany only just reached the NATO-mandated 2% target in 2024, after years of criticism from its allies.

But Merz says that’s not enough. In October 2024, he put it bluntly:

"Russia is rearming at such a pace that within five to eight years, it could be ready to attack a NATO country. We made a mistake in 2022, assuming Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine. Another mistake like that will cost us dearly."

Merz doesn’t trust the U.S. to have Europe’s back, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House and pushes his “America First” agenda. His plan? Turn Germany into a military powerhouse that doesn’t need to rely on Washington.

That means:
– More tanks, more missiles, more fighter jets
– A fully modernized Bundeswehr
– Faster arms deliveries to Ukraine
– A European security strategy independent of U.S. leadership

This isn’t just rebuilding Germany’s military—it’s about making sure the country can stand its ground in a rapidly changing world order.

Angela Merkel’s “open door” immigration policy in 2015, which brought over a million refugees to Germany, is officially dead.

Merz is slamming the brakes on uncontrolled migration and pushing for aggressive new policies:

"We need to act at Germany’s borders, and our proposal is clear—start turning people away immediately. No delays. We’ve known since 2015 that this is legally possible, and in 2024, we must finally have the courage to do it."

This is a direct appeal to voters who flocked to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), making them the second-largest party. But while Merz is stealing their thunder, he still refuses to work with them.

His plan includes:
– Slashing social benefits for migrants
– Stronger border controls
– Strict caps on new arrivals

Merz is also reviving a controversial concept from the early 2000s—Leitkultur (Leading Culture). The idea? Germany has a dominant cultural identity based on traditional German values, and it takes precedence over immigrant communities' customs and traditions.

Even Merkel herself admitted in 2010 that "multiculturalism in Germany has failed." But her policies told a different story, paving the way for mass immigration that dramatically reshaped the country’s political landscape.

Now, Merz is out to reverse that legacy.

Friedrich Merz is not your typical chancellor. This is a man who was exiled from politics, fought his way back, and finally took control of Germany’s conservative movement.

Back in the 2000s, he was one of the CDU’s biggest rising stars, seen as a future leader. But there was one big problem—Angela Merkel. She outmaneuvered him, sidelining him first in 2002, then again in 2009, when he finally quit politics altogether.

For almost a decade, he built a high-powered career in corporate law, making serious money in the private sector.

Then, in 2018, Merkel announced she was stepping down. And just like that, Merz came back swinging.

But the party wasn’t ready for him. The CDU establishment blocked him twice—first for Merkel’s hand-picked successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, then for Armin Laschet, the uninspiring moderate who went on to lose the 2021 election.

It took a full-blown party crisis for the CDU to finally give Merz a shot. In 2022, when members were allowed to vote directly, he won in a landslide—62% of the vote.

Three years later, he’s running the country.

Merz has made it clear: his leadership isn’t a continuation of Merkel’s Germany, and it sure as hell isn’t Scholz 2.0.

His top priorities:
– Raise defense spending to 3% of GDP
– Tighten immigration laws
– Ramp up military support for Ukraine
– Reinforce Germany’s national identity
– Bring the economy back to pre-Scholz competitiveness

But before any of that happens, he has to finalize his coalition. With no majority, he’s got some tough deals to cut.

His three options:

A Grand Coalition with SPD and the Greens – Awkward, messy, and politically humiliating for the left, but possible. An Alliance with the Free Democrats (FDP) – The ideal scenario, but FDP might not even be in parliament. A Minority Government – Risky, fragile, and a last resort if negotiations collapse.

One way or another, Germany is headed into uncharted waters.

After two decades of centrist rule, the country is making a hard-right turn.

The Merz era is here. The only question is—how far will he take Germany?

Friedrich Merz might have won the election, but the real fight is just beginning—forming a government in one of the most divided Bundestags in decades. With no outright majority, he’s got three options, none of them easy.

– A Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats – A bitter pill for both sides. The SPD would have to swallow its worst defeat in history and accept a secondary role in a CDU-led government. Merz, in turn, would be forced into compromises that could water down his conservative agenda.
– A Partnership with the Free Democrats (FDP) – The dream coalition for Merz. The problem? The FDP might not even make it into parliament, failing to clear the 5% threshold. If they’re out, so is this plan.
– A Minority Government – Unstable, unpredictable, and messy, but if coalition talks collapse, Merz might be forced to go it alone.

No matter how the negotiations play out, one thing is certain—Germany is at a turning point.

For the first time in two decades, a true conservative is taking power, vowing bold reforms, stricter immigration policies, military expansion, and economic revival.

But can Merz deliver on his promises, or will he crash and burn like Armin Laschet?

Germany is about to find out.