The world is buzzing again, like a storm ripping through the carefully crafted diplomatic order that Western elites spent decades constructing. Donald Trump is back—and he’s wasting no time tearing down the old playbook, bulldozing through political dogmas, alliance commitments, and that so-called "collective solidarity" Washington has been force-feeding Europe for years.
His first big move? A hard pivot in U.S. foreign policy. Trump, dripping with impatience and open disdain, has tossed Ukraine aside—the very country the Biden administration made the centerpiece of its strategy—and is instead betting big on direct negotiations with Russia. Kyiv isn’t just being sidelined—it’s being shoved into irrelevance, treated like a second-rate player that no longer has a say in its own future.
Washington is playing the Moscow card. Europe is in shock, Kyiv is panicking, and the global community is nervously watching as Trump, with the grin of a high-stakes gambler, reshuffles the geopolitical deck with Russia as his wildcard.
Why Russia? Why is Washington, the moment it shakes off Biden’s “democratic” administration, reaching out for a handshake with the Kremlin?
The answer is simple—but it stings for those who still believed in the old Western power structure.
First, this is a show of respect. Trump doesn’t see Moscow as an aggressor or a threat—he sees it as an imperial power that demands recognition. Putin has made it clear that status is everything to him, and Trump, the ultimate dealmaker, knows exactly how to play that game.
Second, Trump is after quick results. If Moscow can be pushed toward compromise, if sanctions can be eased in exchange for concessions, if a deal can be struck without Europe’s bureaucratic red tape and Ukraine’s political drama—then that’s an opportunity too good to pass up.
Third, this is about obliterating Biden’s legacy. Trump isn’t just changing course—he’s putting Biden’s entire foreign policy through the shredder, making it clear that the previous administration was dead wrong and that the war could have been prevented back in 2022.
But the biggest play? Trump doesn’t see Russia as an enemy—he sees it as a tool. Moscow, in his eyes, is the key to a new world order where China, not Ukraine, is America’s top geopolitical challenge. Washington isn’t just trying to weaken Russia—it’s trying to flip it, pull it away from Beijing, and turn it into a pawn in the larger U.S.-China rivalry.
For Zelensky, this shift is nothing short of a political earthquake. The U.S. isn’t just leaving Ukraine out of the conversation—it’s not even pretending otherwise. In Riyadh, the talks weren’t about the war, weren’t about Ukraine’s future—they were about whether a U.S.-Russia dialogue could open a new chapter.
Trump doesn’t see Ukraine as a priority. In fact, he sees it as dead weight—an expensive liability that brings the U.S. nothing in return. Ukraine is no longer at the center of the conversation—it’s being pushed aside by bigger deals, bigger players, and more valuable allies.
And the worst part for Kyiv? If Washington starts treating Ukraine as a bargaining chip, Europe might follow. If the EU pulls the plug on Ukraine’s funding, the country could find itself on the brink of disaster.
This isn’t just a tactical shift—it’s a seismic realignment in global politics. Biden built a coalition against Russia. Trump is setting the stage for negotiations. Biden flooded Ukraine with weapons. Trump is looking for an off-ramp. Biden doubled down on Europe. Trump is cutting out the middlemen.
Will he pull it off? Will Moscow take the bait or try to squeeze the most out of America’s unpredictability? Those are the big questions.
But one thing is clear: Trump isn’t here to restore the old world—he’s here to tear it down.
Four Reasons Trump Is Talking to Russia First
Trump’s decision to make his first major foreign policy move with Russia can be boiled down to a few key factors:
Status matters to the Kremlin. Trump understands that Putin isn’t just looking for deals—he’s looking for recognition. Showing respect to Moscow isn’t just a diplomatic move; it’s a calculated play to make Russia more willing to negotiate.
Russia might offer quick wins. U.S. intelligence suggests that Moscow is open to a thaw with the West—especially if it means economic relief. If a deal can be struck that eases sanctions in exchange for concessions, that’s something Trump will try to leverage.
Breaking with Biden’s legacy. Trump has never hidden his admiration for Putin and has made it clear that he believes the war could have been avoided. By making a sharp pivot, he’s driving home the message that Biden’s entire approach was a failure.
Using Russia against China. The endgame isn’t just peace with Moscow—it’s using Russia as a wedge in the U.S.-China rivalry. Trump’s team believes they can lure Moscow away from Beijing, breaking up the partnership that has been strengthening since the start of the Ukraine war.
Interestingly, official statements from the Riyadh meetings confirm that Ukraine was barely on the agenda. The talks weren’t about the war but about the future of U.S.-Russia relations. Trump’s administration insists they aren’t negotiating “behind Ukraine’s back,” but rather exploring what it would take for Moscow to step back from the conflict.
One thing is certain: Trump is playing a high-stakes game. Whether it ends in a new geopolitical deal or a global power struggle is anyone’s guess.
Trump: Business Over Democracy
The question of whether Donald Trump sees Vladimir Putin purely as a business partner is still up for debate. But one thing is clear: for Trump, democracy versus authoritarianism isn’t a deal-breaker in foreign policy. He doesn’t view Russia’s political system as an obstacle to cooperation—if anything, he seems to believe that business interests can outweigh political differences.
Some of Trump’s advisors argue that the U.S. needs to re-enter the Russian market before the Europeans beat them to it. The logic? Getting in early could give American companies a major competitive edge. There’s also speculation that the Kremlin might be offering Washington incentives—whether in the oil and gas sector, retail, or consumer goods—to sweeten the deal.
But for Trump, it’s not just about economics. His bigger play is global power politics, and the real target isn’t Moscow—it’s Beijing. His ultimate goal is to pressure China into making trade concessions to the U.S.
For years, the U.S. and China have been locked in a trade war, and Trump plans to crank up the heat. One way to do that? Use Russia as leverage against Beijing.
One of the biggest sticking points in U.S.-China relations is nuclear arms control. Trump has long pushed for a trilateral discussion between the U.S., Russia, and China, but Beijing has repeatedly refused to engage. The growing U.S.-Russia dialogue could be a way to force China to the table.
There’s also a belief inside Trump’s circle that if Washington starts warming up to Moscow, China might start to sweat. The fear of a U.S.-Russia partnership could push Beijing into offering economic concessions just to keep Russia from shifting its alliances.
Can Trump Seal the Deal?
Critics argue that Trump is great at starting negotiations but terrible at following through. His first term saw high-profile talks with North Korea that ultimately led nowhere. Could Russia be another case of big talk, no results?
The Ukraine war makes this a much bigger gamble. The U.S. is directly involved, and the outcome will shape global power dynamics for years. At the same time, Russia isn’t interested in empty gestures—it wants concrete results. The Kremlin will likely dangle diplomatic compromises and economic deals to keep Trump engaged.
Moscow also has strong bargaining chips in its pocket:
- The ability to cool relations with China—a huge strategic win for the U.S.
- Lucrative energy deals that could benefit American businesses.
- A potential prisoner swap—a move that would score Trump major political points at home.
- Arctic cooperation, which could be valuable for Washington’s long-term geopolitical interests.
But if Trump doesn’t see a clear benefit, his administration could just as easily flip the script and turn up the heat on Russia. That could mean tougher sanctions, financial restrictions, and even a fresh embargo on Russian energy exports.
Will Sanctions on Russia Be Lifted?
Trump’s team has already hinted that sanctions enforcement should fall primarily on Europe. The EU was Russia’s top trading partner before 2022 and was the first to impose sweeping economic restrictions.
That said, Washington could ease some of the toughest sanctions—particularly those related to international transactions and energy exports. Trump has even floated the idea of bringing Russia back into the G7, which would be a massive step toward restoring Moscow’s global standing.
The tricky part? Selling this to the American public. If sanctions are lifted without major concessions from Moscow, Trump will face backlash—not just from Democrats but also from Republicans who have taken a hard line on Russia.
Russia, of course, will push for sanctions relief with minimal compromises—but getting there without some kind of diplomatic progress won’t be easy. If the Kremlin sees a real shot at re-engagement with Washington, it might be willing to soften its demands in post-war negotiations.
The Bigger Picture: A Shift in U.S. Strategy
With Trump back in the White House, America’s stance on Russia and Ukraine is undergoing a dramatic shift. The focus is moving away from propping up Kyiv and toward a hard-nosed, business-first approach—one where restoring economic ties with Moscow plays a key role.
This could shake up U.S. relations with Europe. If Washington starts easing off on Russia, European leaders will face a tough choice: stick with their current hardline stance or start looking for ways to reopen their own business channels with Moscow.
Russia sees this shift as a golden opportunity. The Kremlin knows that if Washington loosens economic pressure, European corporations will want back in—and they’ll lobby their governments to make exceptions to the sanctions regime.
A few years ago, European companies framed their exit from Russia as a moral stance. But if the White House signals that business with Moscow is back on the table, that moral argument could start to crumble.
And for Kyiv, this is a nightmare scenario. If even the U.S. starts rebuilding economic ties with Russia, Ukraine will have a much harder time convincing the West to keep the pressure on Moscow. If Washington moves toward diplomacy and business-first pragmatism, the dominoes could start falling fast.
One of the potential areas for U.S.-Russia collaboration is the Arctic—a region of growing strategic significance for both nations. However, under current geopolitical conditions, this prospect seems more like a distant possibility than an immediate reality.
Trump and his team view the Northern Sea Route as a key factor in global trade, but with current oil prices and the extreme challenges of resource extraction in Arctic conditions, the economic feasibility of such projects remains questionable. For now, the potential for Arctic cooperation is likely overestimated, but in the long run, Washington could see value in reviving partnerships with Moscow in this sector.
One of the most controversial moves by Trump’s new administration has been demanding that American companies receive a 50% stake in Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for military aid. This aggressive proposal has raised eyebrows even among traditional U.S. allies, as such harsh conditions effectively strip Ukraine of its sovereignty over its own strategic assets.
For Trump’s team, securing a tangible return on investment is crucial—his administration wants to show the American public that the hundreds of billions spent on Kyiv are actually paying off. However, this move has already faced fierce resistance from Ukraine, and the question remains: will the deal be restructured as a corporate agreement to minimize the political fallout?
One thing is clear: Trump’s administration is not interested in unconditional support for Kyiv—a stark contrast to Biden’s approach. More and more, the rhetoric from Washington suggests that Ukraine has failed to meet U.S. expectations and that the aid provided so far hasn’t yielded significant results.
For Biden, Ukraine was a pillar of global security. For Trump, it’s an economic asset—a resource hub that must deliver a return on investment for the U.S. Domestically, criticism of America’s multi-billion-dollar spending spree on Ukraine is growing, forcing Trump to look for ways to scale back commitments and make support more transactional.
At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President J.D. Vance delivered a speech that sent shockwaves through European capitals. Washington made it clear that it will not continue financing European interests unless they directly benefit America.
This policy shift underscores the core of Trump’s foreign policy approach—pragmatism, economic efficiency, and a complete reassessment of alliance commitments. Unlike Biden, who upheld the traditional U.S. role as Europe’s security guarantor, Trump views many aspects of transatlantic cooperation as wasteful spending. Specifically, his administration is considering:
- Reducing the U.S. military presence in Europe
- Limiting aid to Ukraine or tying it directly to American business interests
- Shifting economic priorities away from Europe and toward bilateral deals that benefit the U.S.
This shift is causing tensions between Washington and European leaders, particularly as far-right parties gain traction across the EU—many of whom share Trump’s views on globalism and U.S. interventionism.
Trump and his inner circle see Europe’s rising right-wing movements as natural allies in their fight against globalist elites. They believe these movements face the same challenges Trump did in 2020, when he claimed the election was "stolen" from him.
Trump’s ultimate goal? Shatter Europe’s liberal consensus and create a geopolitical environment more favorable to U.S. interests. His administration expects that if right-wing parties take power in key EU countries, they will:
- Push to weaken anti-Russia sanctions
- Reevaluate trade and economic deals unfavorable to Washington
- Adopt a more nationalist, pro-sovereignty approach that aligns with Trump’s worldview
This potential political shift could undermine EU cohesion, erode Brussels’ authority, and reshape Europe’s relationship with both the U.S. and Russia.
In short, Trump isn’t just rethinking America’s alliances—he’s trying to reshape the entire global order.
A New World Order? Not So Fast.
Some analysts are throwing around the idea that we’re witnessing the birth of a new world order, but reality paints a different picture. Historically, the global system has only been restructured after major wars—the Napoleonic Wars, World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. Despite the intensity of the Ukraine conflict, we’re not at that level of transformation—at least not yet.
However, we are seeing clear trends:
- Escalating U.S.-China rivalry, as Washington and Beijing compete for global dominance.
- A shift from multilateral cooperation to pragmatic, transactional, one-on-one deals.
- A deepening divide between nationalist, sovereignty-focused states and globalists pushing for international governance.
With Trump back in the driver’s seat, the old "democracy vs. autocracy" narrative is fading. Economic interests are now front and center.
For Trump, peace in Ukraine isn’t about values or security—it’s about winning at home. His key objectives are:
- Cutting back on U.S. spending for Ukraine and convincing voters he’s a dealmaker who puts America first.
- Positioning himself as a peacemaker—drawing a sharp contrast with Biden, whose approach has only prolonged the war.
- Scoring political points before the election by proving he can strike a deal—even with Putin.
But here’s the wildcard: Trump is unpredictable. If he feels Russia is playing him, he could do a full 180—bringing back tough sanctions and ramping up pressure on Moscow. His volatile, deal-first mindset means that if the talks don’t go his way, the Kremlin could find itself facing an even tougher U.S. stance than before.
The Trump administration is throwing out Biden’s playbook. The U.S. is pulling away from blind support for Europe and Ukraine, pivoting instead to:
- A hard-nosed, America-first approach to diplomacy.
- Using potential U.S.-Russia cooperation as a strategic lever against China.
- Empowering nationalist, right-wing movements in Europe, which could push for a softer stance on Russia.
This shift could weaken the Western sanctions regime, further strengthening the political right in Europe, and reshaping the global balance of power.
Trump is betting on talks with Russia, while simultaneously ratcheting up pressure on China. But can he pull it off without losing support at home?
His administration is cutting Ukraine and Europe out of the equation—a calculated gamble aimed at reshuffling global alliances in Washington’s favor. By warming up to Moscow, Trump hopes to:
- Pressure Beijing into trade and economic concessions.
- Open up new business opportunities for American companies.
- Rebrand himself as the leader who ended a war Biden couldn’t.
But the big question remains: Will Trump see these negotiations through, or will he lose interest—just like he did with North Korea?
For Russia, this moment is a rare opportunity to break out of isolation. But the Kremlin knows that Trump’s interest isn’t guaranteed—if Washington’s patience runs out, a fresh wave of sanctions and economic pressure could hit harder than before.
Bottom line? Trump isn’t here to preserve the old order—he’s here to rewrite the rules. Whether he succeeds or not is another question entirely.
